Sunday, March 28, 2010

Swing


Thanks for my friend for reminding me there is a phase call swing trade. Yes, if you have been smart enough to join the swing game in the past few months, I guess you have gained some profit already. So back to the topic, what swing should we joint?

In my point of view, joining the swing game in oil is the safest in recent, at least for the coming week.
  • High oil price hurt economic, especially those who are unemployed. Around 10% of unemployed people are traveling around daily to find their right job. High oil price gonna hurt them a lot. Only this particular factor should capped the oil price in $85.00 USD
  • Even the unemployment rate decline to 9.5%, which shall happen in the coming months, thats does not help to boost the oil price more than $90.
  • Thus, oil price is being capped for sure. Not only by the supply and demand effect, but also from the perspective of the government
  • How about the lower cap? Yes, oil price that are too low, lower than $75 USD will hurt oil company. If the oil company close down or infant more un-employees, the market is being hurt in another way. So Oil price shall not be lower than $75 USD.
  • Supporting point will be the stock call XOM, is only $3.00 USD from its 52 week low. What does that mean? It means that low oil price really destroy these oil company profit. But who cares these big corporation profit when you are unemployed.
  • So on the supply and demand factor and on the government side, oil price cannot be too low, otherwise, the economic will be hurt on the back side
To conclude, 75-85 will be the big range, 79-83 will be the middle range, 80-82 will be the small range.

If you have loads of money, do it in small range. You know what I mean.

Finally, me and mic think that UCO AND SCO ETF shall assist you in exploding yourself in oil market.

Thanks
Paul

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