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歐洲一遊

美国前財長 Lawrence Summers 於4月29日在 Finanical Times  發表文章指出歐洲在過往未能对政下藥, 引至歐元區病情被未有任何好轉. Summers  更進一步指出,歐洲的問題並非債務大, 而是經济出現負增長的問題.繼續以 Austerity 的方向走下去, 將会是錯误的.

Lawrence Summers 發表文章後15日,  歐元區变天, 首當其沖的歐元現報1.28855,与上星期高位1.3063 相差178点.歐元的回落,進－步引証歐元區的矛盾深不見底.究竟 Austerity 是否应繼績,还是轉变方向行 Growth Pact?  希臘於歐元區的去留?  西班牙挽救銀行大行动的影響? 不論怎樣, 短期的歐元仍然受壓. 預計有待今晩 (5月14日) 才開始的 Euro Finance Ministers Meetings  結束後 与 法国和德国於星期二 (5月15日) 出來解畫後, 才能完全的回穏. 預計這星期的 EURO 1.27600  - 1.29500

意大利和法國本周拍債. 拍債前夕, 西班牙10年息囗卻升至6.03%. 作为決策者, 推低大市, 引錢入債, 從而壓低息囗, 不足为奇. 息囗成为後市－個重要指標. 歐洲消息變幻莫測, 暫避德国的 DAX 和法国的 CAC 为上策. 对於希臘, 市場繼續議論紛紛. 希臘進退兩難, 形成国会分裂局面, New Democracy  坐擁19% 票數, Pasok 則坐擁13 % 票數. 隨着失业率的加大, 人民反窩倒向, 投票给支持洗錢的 Syriza, 令 Syriza 坐擁16% 票數. 国会分裂, 令希臘6月中再大選的機会加大       

不明朗因素持續, 只敢摸石過河, 不敢作大膽假切, 亦不应大手入市, 看淡今晩的德法股市, 中線看淡歐元.  

Paul 

歐洲一遊

歐洲形勢再進入膠着狀态, 由法国總統選舉引起的風波, 令昨天亞洲全線股市下跌. 唯法国卻升1.65%. 德国也跟隨, 最後升0.12%. 隨Nicolas Sarkozy 落選後, Francois Hollande 將執政. 与Sarkozy 的政綱相反, Hollande 的參選政鋼 推行冼錢, 打壓有錢的資本家, 打壓謀取暴利的銀行, 以爭取中下階層的票數. 不談Hollande 的政策能否成功執行, 從數據看, 法国的確有空間再擴大Government Spending, 從而擴大Government Budget去壓低偏高的失业率. 不論怎樣, 短期看, Hollande 的當選应为法国經濟带來一個新景象.

但对於整個歐洲, Hollande的當選卻引起歐元區更多的矛盾. 由Austerity 突變成加大, 加速Government Spending, 的確, 短時間内, 市場難以適应, 加上未知德国意慾如何, 会否支持, 跟隨法国的做法, Euro 的去向, 絶对有待Hollande 下星期訪問完德国才能重上升軌. 短期, 未來四日内, 建議再沽Euro. 1.30500 沽, 1.32000止

 

歐元區成員, 當然不得不提希臘, 西班牙, 意大利, 和葡萄牙.

眼看着高失业率, 但由於過百 % 的Debt to GDP, 加上息口己升至歷史新高, 加大政府開支無期, 希臘, 意大利, 和葡萄牙實朿手無策. 雖然西班牙只有68.50% Debt to GDP, 唯息口己升至5.73%, 都只可坐以待斃.

如果法国和德国在未來由Austerity变成加速Government Spending, 如果美国的評级機構能行個方便, 如果刺激法国和德国本土經濟, 重而伸展至其它歐元區成員, 或許, 歐洲可在不久後, 跳出這個膠着狀态. 唯变數太多, 太亂. 决乏細節下, 試問又怎能麻木的叫好去追買法国和德国的股票?

Paul

The Scream

The Scream sold for a record $120 Million U.S. at auction on Wednesday at Sotheby's, far exceeding pre-sales estimates of about $ 80 million U.S.

via [ City TV ]

金馬倫伙Google巨頭 謀小行星採礦

謀小行星採礦

- a pretty interesting article from HK Yahoo news of 明報
- mining in the ocean floor, deep sea mining, has been a major research in mining industry. Australia, a mining country, could be the leading country to do so. Other countries like Korea/Japan/South Africa are trying to follow. More than 70% of the earth is beneath the ocean. It could be a major break through for these projects to succeed. Despite the technology exists, lots of environmental issues are raised against them. 
- thus, people now have shifted their focus to the outer space with even better potential out there. However, i believe outer space mining would even raise more issues, especially in politics. Which country has the right to mine it? Technology should not be a problem. It will always come down to political and environmental problems.
- Despite political and environmental concerns, deep ocean and outer space mining could be a big hit in the future.

thanks
Lawrence
 

Falling Gold?

Gold falls on worries over Europe, China
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold fell Monday on worrying political developments in the euro zone and data from China showing continued contraction for the country’s manufacturing sector. 
-fell $13.80, or 0.8%, to $1,629.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The metal settled marginally higher Friday at $1,642.80 an ounce but ended the week down 1%. 

worsened situation? 

Thanks

Lawrence

Fiat money from the Museum of Shanghai

Apple Store in Shanghai

Sinopec signs up to hot springs deal back in 2010

BEIJING - Sinopec Star Petroleum Co has signed an agreement with Iceland's Geysir Green Energy (GGE) for the exploration and development of geothermal resources in northern China's Inner Mongolia autonomous region, in a move to make further use of clean energy in the country.

According to the agreement, Enex China, the Chinese operation of GGE, and Sinopec Star will assist local authorities in initiating and compiling a geothermal survey in Aershan.

The parties agreed to cooperate on geothermal development and utilization in the city with an emphasis on building up indoor heating systems, greenhouse agriculture and geothermal electricity generation.

The Inner Mongolia project would be the third such investment in China for GGE.

Premier Wen Jiabao urged the two countries to expand cooperation in the sector of geothermal energy development in September during a meeting with Iceland President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson at the Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin.

Geysir Green Energy, one of the largest geothermal energy companies in Iceland, signed a five-year agreement with China's Sinopec Star in June to develop geothermal energy resources in northern China.

The five-year agreement includes developments in Shaanxi province, Hebei province, Beijing municipality, Tianjin municipality, as well as regions in northeastern China. It's estimated that the projects will cover 30 to 40 million square meters (sq m) eventually.

Geysir has already worked on two Chinese geothermal projects in Shaanxi and Hebei provinces through its subsidiary Enex.

Under the agreement signed in June, the two projects - in the cities of Xianyang and Baoding - will be expanded beyond their current capacity of 140 megawatt-hours. They are operated under a joint venture between Enex and Sinopec Star.

"The timeline would be to build up 20 million sq m of heating coverage in the next three years and further expand to 30 to 40 million sq m in the next five years," Jiang Zhu, managing director of Geysir in China, said earlier.

Sinopec's geothermal capacity can provide heating for 2.6 million sq m of housing in Xianyang, Shaanxi province, and Baoding, Hebei province, which translates into a reduction of 300,000 tons in carbon dioxide emissions, said Zan Qi, general manager of Sinopec Star.

Its current capacity can be expanded to 10 million sq m by 2015, according to the company head.

Sinopec, China's leading oil refiner, started commercial development of geothermal resources this year as part of its strategy of low-carbon economic growth through a joint venture - Shaanxi Green Energy Geothermal Development - between Sinopec Star and Enex.

According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, there are more than 1,000 geothermal energy fields around the country, and nearly a quarter of them have been developed. The country's utilization of geothermal energy ranks top in the world.

Geothermal energy could help cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25 million tons a year, according to the ministry.

via [ China Daily ] 

Facebook Acquired Instagram

I'm excited to share the news that we've agreed to acquire Instagram and that their talented team will be joining Facebook.

For years, we've focused on building the best experience for sharing photos with your friends and family. Now, we'll be able to work even more closely with the Instagram team to also offer the best experiences for sharing beautiful mobile photos with people based on your interests.

We believe these are different experiences that complement each other. But in order to do this well, we need to be mindful about keeping and building on Instagram's strengths and features rather than just trying to integrate everything into Facebook.

That's why we're committed to building and growing Instagram independently. Millions of people around the world love the Instagram app and the brand associated with it, and our goal is to help spread this app and brand to even more people.

We think the fact that Instagram is connected to other services beyond Facebook is an important part of the experience. We plan on keeping features like the ability to post to other social networks, the ability to not share your Instagrams on Facebook if you want, and the ability to have followers and follow people separately from your friends on Facebook.

These and many other features are important parts of the Instagram experience and we understand that. We will try to learn from Instagram's experience to build similar features into our other products. At the same time, we will try to help Instagram continue to grow by using Facebook's strong engineering team and infrastructure.

This is an important milestone for Facebook because it's the first time we've ever acquired a product and company with so many users. We don't plan on doing many more of these, if any at all. But providing the best photo sharing experience is one reason why so many people love Facebook and we knew it would be worth bringing these two companies together.

We're looking forward to working with the Instagram team and to all of the great new experiences we're going to be able to build together.

via Mark Zuckerberg Facebook