Wednesday, August 4, 2010

In case you do not know what is US dollar index

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with

USDX started in March 1973, soon after the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system. At its start, the value of the US Dollar Index was 100.000. It has since traded as high as the mid-160s and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008, the lowest since its inception in 1973.

The makeup of the "basket" has been altered only once, when several European currencies were subsumed by the Euro at the start of 1999.

USDX is updated whenever US Dollar markets are open, which is from Sunday evening New York time (early Monday morning Asia time) for 24 hours a day to late Friday afternoon New York time.

USDX can be traded as a futures contract on the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE). It is also available in exchange traded funds (ETFs), options and mutual funds.

What is happening to Oil Price

Four factors that are affecting the oil price.

1. US dollar strength, I guess it is a good time again to have a look on the US dollar index. Staring from 7th June, 2010, the US dollar index has been declining from around 88 to 81. Which mean US dollar is relatively depreciating with other currency. This also state that US dollar is weaker in recent.

Weakening USD could be explained by:
  • The re-calculated GDP data in USA
  • The GDP prediction in USA
  • The double dip rumours
  • The long term depreciation in USD
  • The basic fundamentals factors thats happening in USA
2. The crazy drop that happened in three months ago. Oil price dropped from $86 to $67. Nothing much to explain about the drop. The most reliable that could explain this drop are USA economic data. Powerful trader should have been collecting oil in the range from $67-$76. Oil market in the supply side is so weak in the range $76-$80. Thats why when Alex, the hurricane came by, oil price easily move up. Remember, $76-$80 range is so thin. Not much people are willing to sell in this range. Oil price can easily move in this range controlled by the powerful traders

3. Hurricane effect. According to some estimation, 2010 will be a year that attract hurricane the most.

4. Developing country, like China, has increased the oil consumption in a increasing rate.

All in all, oil price will shift around $78-$83 for the coming days. Try to buy in dip

Thanks
Paul Ng


Lets have a look in yahoo finance news about oil



SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell slightly from a three-month high above $82 a barrel Wednesday in Asia after a report showed U.S. crude inventories fell less than expected last week, suggesting demand in the U.S. remains sluggish.

Benchmark crude for September delivery was down 38 cents to $82.17 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.21 to settle at $82.55 on Tuesday, the highest since May 4.

U.S. crude inventories fell by 776,000 barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. That was less than a drop of 1.2 million barrels that analysts expected, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Supplies of gasoline and distillates rose, the API said.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report its inventory data on Wednesday.

Analysts point to surging oil demand in developing economies, especially China, as more than offsetting a tepid recovery in the U.S. and Europe.

"The underlying fact is the emerging markets are still growing and so is their consumption of energy," Sander Capital said in a report.

Oil broke above $80 this week as the euro rose to a three-month high against the dollar. The euro fell slightly to $1.3216 on Wednesday from $1.3222 on Tuesday while the dollar fell to an eight-month low of 85.38 yen from 85.80 yen.

If oil prices continue to rally, it could undermine consumer demand in the U.S. and jeopardize the fragile economic recovery. Oil soared to $147 a barrel in July 2008 before plummeting to $32 in December amid a global financial crisis and recession.

"The scary thought is what happens if oil hits $86 and keeps going," Sander Capital said. "The U.S. economy cannot take oil at $100 a barrel again.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil fell 0.84 cent to $2.1916 a gallon, gasoline skidded 1.12 cents to $2.1823 a gallon and natural gas rose 2.2 cents to 4.730 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Brent crude was down 30 cents to $82.35 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange.

Via Yahoo Finance

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

The ETF technology

Here is all the ETFs provided by Direxion.

Domestic Equity (USA)
3x ETFs



BGU Daily Large Cap Bull 3x Shares Russell 1000 300% RIY
BGZ Daily Large Cap Bear 3x Shares Russell 1000 -300% RIY
MWJ Daily Mid Cap Bull 3x Shares Russell Midcap Index 300% RMC
MWN Daily Mid Cap Bear 3x Shares Russell Midcap Index -300% RMC
TNA Daily Small Cap Bull 3x Shares Russell 2000 300% RTY
TZA Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares Russell 2000 -300% RTY
Sector Equity
2x ETFs



FCGL Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 2x Shares ISE Revere Natural Gas Index™ 200% FUM
FCGS Daily Natural Gas Related Bear 2x Shares ISE Revere Natural Gas Index™ -200% FUM
RETL Daily Retail Bull 2x Shares Russell 1000® Retail Index 200% RU1SSRTL
RETS Daily Retail Bear 2x Shares Russell 1000® Retail Index -200% RU1SSRTL
3x ETFs



ERX Daily Energy Bull 3x Shares Russell 1000 Energy 300% RGUSEL
ERY Daily Energy Bear 3x Shares Russell 1000 Energy -300% RGUSEL
FAS Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares Russell 1000 Financial Services 300% RGUSFL
FAZ Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares Russell 1000 Financial Services -300% RGUSFL
DRN Daily Real Estate Bull 3x Shares MSCI US REIT Index 300% RMZ
DRV Daily Real Estate Bear 3x Shares MSCI US REIT Index -300% RMZ
SOXL Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index 300% SOX
SOXS Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index -300% SOX
TYH Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares Russell 1000 Technology Index 300% RGUSTL
TYP Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares Russell 1000 Technology Index -300% RGUSTL
International Equity
2x ETFs



BRIL Daily BRIC Bull 2x Shares BNY Mellon BRIC Select ADR Index 200% BKBRIC
BRIS Daily BRIC Bear 2x Shares BNY Mellon BRIC Select ADR Index -200% BKBRIC
INDL Daily India Bull 2x Shares Indus India Index 200% III
INDZ Daily India Bear 2x Shares Indus India Index -200% III
3x ETFs



DZK Daily Developed Markets Bull 3X Shares MSCI EAFE Index 300% MXEA
DPK Daily Developed Markets Bear 3X Shares MSCI EAFE Index -300% MXEA
CZM Daily China Bull 3x Shares BNY Mellon China Select ADR Index 300% BKTCN
CZI Daily China Bear 3x Shares BNY Mellon China Select ADR Index -300% BKTCN
EDC Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares MSCI Emerging Markets Index 300% MXEF
EDZ Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shares MSCI Emerging Markets Index -300% MXEF
LBJ Daily Latin America Bull 3x Shares S&P Latin America 40 Index 300% SPLAC
LHB Daily Latin America Bear 3x Shares S&P Latin America 40 Index -300% SPLAC
Fixed Income
3x ETFs



TWOL Daily 2-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares NYSE Current 2-Year U.S. Treasury Index 300% AXTWO
TWOZ Daily 2-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares NYSE Current 2-Year U.S. Treasury Index -300% AXTWO
TYD Daily 10-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares NYSE Arca Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index 300% AXTEN
TYO Daily 10-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares NYSE Arca Current 10-Year U.S. Treasury Index -300% AXTEN
TMF Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares NYSE Arca Current 30-Year U.S. Treasury Index 300% AXTHR
TMV Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares NYSE Arca Current 30-Year U.S. Treasury Index -300% AXTHR

Monday, August 2, 2010

Be Alert with Visa

Hi

Visa is introducing a new online shopping tool.

Check this out

Press Release Source: Visa Inc. On Monday August 2, 2010, 8:00 am EDT

SAN FRANCISCO SAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Visa Inc. (NYSE: V - News) today launched Rightcliq™ by Visa, an online shopping tool that improves the way consumers browse and compare products, checkout on merchant websites, and track packages to their doorstep. The web application features the Wishspace™, a visual wish list that lets consumers collect, organize and share images of products they’re considering purchasing. Other key features let consumers browse merchant offers from popular brands, easily solicit advice from friends, and auto-fill payment information at point of sale using a digital wallet that can hold any credit, debit or prepaid card.

Visa developed Rightcliq to address many of the frustration points consumers experience while shopping online and to help them make smart online buying decisions. According to a recent Visa survey, half of all online shoppers rely on inconvenient methods – like bookmarking and written lists – to track items they are interested in buying, but not yet ready to purchase. More than 90 percent said they would do more online shopping if they had an easy way to compare items and see available merchant discounts and promotions.1 Rightcliq’s features address these opportunities and will help make online shopping simpler, smarter, and more fun.

“At Visa, we know consumers love to shop online, but they also want better ways to streamline the experience and eliminate some of the frustrations they encounter in the process,” said Gerry Sweeney, global head of ecommerce and authentication, Visa Inc. “Rightcliq is Visa’s answer to that consumer demand. Our deep knowledge of our consumers’ needs combined with our longstanding commitment to making ecommerce more convenient, secure and rewarding has resulted in a product that we believe will change the way people shop online. Today Visa is synonymous with a better way to pay. Rightcliq is a key step toward becoming the better way to shop.”

How Rightcliq Works

Rightcliq plays a role in every step of the online shopping process.

•
Browse: As consumers browse merchant sites, the downloadable Rightcliq plug-in lets them add products of interest to the Wishspace with a simple click. Consumers can easily build a visual wish list of items that can be grouped into “bundles” and shared with their social network via email or Facebook. In addition to this social shopping experience, consumers will also see relevant offers from merchants, and can even share those offers with the same social networks.



•

Buy: Consumers can purchase items from the Wishspace by clicking through to merchant websites. At checkout, the plug-in lets consumers auto-fill personal, payment and shipping information that has been stored in their Rightcliq account, eliminating the inconvenience of searching for their wallet and manual data entry. The digital wallet helps consumers make the best payment choice at point of sale, but also allows them to store sensitive information in one secure place and decide when to share it with merchants.





When consumers choose to pay with a stored Visa account, they are guaranteed even more peace of mind thanks to protections consumers have come to expect from Visa – including Zero Liability for fraudulent transactions.



•

Delivery: After an online purchase has been made, Rightcliq makes package tracking easy by visually displaying the shipping status of all packages in one convenient location.

The launch of Rightcliq follows several months of live market testing which enabled Visa to refine features based on user input. Visa plans to listen to what users say they like, dislike and want to see in the future and enhance the product based on that feedback.

“Rightcliq is unique in the marketplace, as it adds value across the whole shopping experience and offers the convenience and peace of mind consumers expect from Visa,” Sweeney said. “We think people will find Rightcliq not only helps them make smarter shopping decisions, but also makes online shopping simpler and more fun.”

To support the launch of Rightcliq, Visa is rolling out an integrated marketing campaign that emphasizes how Rightcliq empowers online shoppers to make smarter buying decisions. The campaign includes digital advertising, social media and public relations, all with the intention of creating consumer awareness and driving enrollment.

Utilizing the line Power to the Shopper, elements of the campaign will address two target consumers - the young trendsetter, who is a tech enthusiast and early adopter of new products and services; and the shopping enthusiast, who loves shopping online, comparing across sites and sharing finds with friends. Co-founders of WhoWhatWear.com, Katherine Power and Hillary Kerr, are featured as the fashion-expert faces of the campaign. Media focuses on product categories where word-of-mouth plays an important role in influencing purchase decisions – apparel, consumer electronics and movies/music. High-engagement creative will be delivered through buys on Daily Candy, Federated Media, Gawker Media, Pitchfork, Yahoo! Shine and WhoWhatWear.com. Gawker Media will feature a “Wish Big” Contest where readers will enter to win their biggest wish by submitting their dream Wishspace bundle. The contest will be promoted on Gizmodo and Lifehacker through banners and sponsored posts. Additionally, Yahoo! Shine will feature a home page roadblock that will include an expandable unit with up to six digital “magazine” pages. Users can flip pages to learn more about the product, view videos, and engage with the brand.



Current stock price is $72.33 on August 2. I assume this will boost up the revenue and profit.

I am looking the stock price to reach $80 in three months.

Thanks

MC

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Is the oil spill a bad thing?

Hi

Is the oil spill a bad thing? Look it the other way and read this article by Robert Kiyosaki

Think the Gulf Spill Is Bad? Wait Until the Next Disaster

by Robert Kiyosaki
Tuesday, June 22, 2010

The world knows BP is a disaster, a monster of a disaster. Every time a TV news station shows oil gushing from a broken pipe -- one mile below the ocean’s surface -- the audience feels sick. Scenes of oil-soaked pelicans struggling for life angers and saddens us. The financial losses endured by small businesses and fishermen cannot be imagined, let alone conveyed by the media interviews alone. BP is a disaster whose scope is beyond comprehension.

I was in England this month when President Barack Obama blamed and criticized BP for this tragedy. His criticism sparked the anger of the English. Politicians wanted him to tone it down, to be more careful in his choice of words. English Prime Minister David Cameron told Obama “not to go after BP for the sake of it.” Richard Branson said he was “kicking a company when it was on their knees.” Their concern was not for the environment or those suffering the ravages of this disaster. Their concern was for the pensioners who are counting on BP for a secure retirement

On June 17, the UK’s Daily Mail ran a headline screaming, “Bullied Into a £13 Cave-In." Brits are angry with Obama for pressuring BP to suspend dividend payments and set aside $20 billion for the clean up. Obama’s strong-arm position has affected British pensioners, who own 40% of BP, as well as American pension funds that own 39%. In other words, the economic damage of BP goes far beyond the Gulf. The damage is spreading to pensions, pensioners, and portfolios all around the world.

Ground Zero for the Next Disaster

While in London, I decided to go to dinner at London’s Canary Wharf, ground zero for the next BP. Only a few years ago, Canary Wharf was one of the centers of the financial universe. Condo prices were sky high, offices were packed, and high-paid bankers filled Canary Wharf with wealth and excitement. Today Canary Wharf seems to be dying. It has lost its vibrancy. Many restaurants and offices were nearly empty and there were few lights to be seen in those once high-priced condos.

Canary Wharf will be the next BP, and its BP stands for Bomb Production. Canary Wharf is much like AIG, a factory for exotic financial products known as derivatives. The problem is that most people do not know what these murky and mysterious products are ­-- and that includes the people who make or buy them. It’s why Warren Buffett has called derivatives “weapons of mass financial destruction.” That is how powerful they are.

Back in 1966, when I was a student training to be a ship’s officer, my ship carried bombs from California to Vietnam. During World War II, a ship exploded while loading bombs at Port Chicago, California, the port where the bombs were loaded onto ships. The explosion flattened everything for miles. It is said that the ship’s anchor, which weighed tons, was found more than 60 miles away. Derivatives -- financial bombs -- have the same power if they accidently detonate inside a bank’s balance sheet.

Financial Bombs

The subprime disaster was a result of financial bombs -- derivatives -- exploding in financial institutions such as AIG and Lehman Brothers, as well as banks and financial institution throughout the world. After the bombs AIG manufactured exploded, AIG received $181 billion in taxpayer funding and immediately sent $11.9 billion to France’s Societe Generale, $11.8 to Deutsche Bank, and $8.5 billion to Barclays Bank of Britain. U.S. taxpayer money was going to bail out banks around the world. During the last three months of 2008, AIG was losing more than $27 million an hour. That is how powerful these derivatives can be. The problem I see is this: There are many more such bombs still sitting in balance sheets all over the world.

Military bombs are classified by weight such as 500, 750, and 1,000 pounds, while financial bombs have interesting labels such as CDO (collateralized debt obligations), ABS (asset backed securities), and CDS (credit default swaps). While they sound exotic and sophisticated, when put in everyday language, a CDO is simply debt sold as an asset. And CDS, or swaps, are simply a form of insurance. Since the insurance industry is strictly regulated and the bomb factories producing CDS did not want to comply with insurance industry regulations, they simply called them “swaps,” rather than insurance.

To make matters worse, rating agencies such as Moody’s and S&P (and even Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) blessed these financial bombs as safe, sound, and good for you. It was almost as good as the pope blessing these products. In 2007 the subprime boom busted, and we know what happened from there.

The problem is that approximately $700 trillion of these financial time bombs are still in the system. While people watch the BP disaster in the Gulf, few people are aware of the other BP -- the financial bomb production -- that is still going on. If this derivative market begins to collapse, we will see another disaster.

Most of us know there is not enough money in the world to fully clean up the Gulf. The same is true with the $700 trillion derivatives market. If just 1% of the $700 trillion derivatives market goes bust, that is a $7 trillion disaster. The entire U.S. economy is only $14 trillion annually. A 10% failure, equating to $70 trillion, would probably bring down the world economy. As with the BP Gulf disaster, there is not enough money in the world to clean up the next disaster.

Could It Happen?

Could such a financial disaster happen? The answer is “Yes.” In fact, just as President Obama pressured BP into doing the “right thing,” so is he pressuring the financial markets to do the right thing. The president and our congressional leaders are pushing through financial reform legislation. My concern is that, if not handled delicately, it is this financial reform that will set off the derivative time bomb -- the next BP.

Currently, derivatives are traded over-the-counter. This mean derivatives are uncontrolled, unregulated, and unsupervised. Proposed financial reform legislation is pushing to have derivatives traded through an exchange. This will bring in greater transparency and controls. My concern is, when this happens, the change to an exchange system will reveal fraud and failures we do not yet know about today. It will be like turning on the light and watching the cockroaches (bankers) run for cover.

While it is commendable that President Obama hold the rich and powerful accountable, I wonder what the price will be? And how many BPs can we afford?

How to trade with discipline

Dear All

Today I am sharing a strategy that I have been using for the past few years to train my discipline towards trading stocks. For beginners in trading stocks, there are lots of time that you know that a stock will rise but you will sell it before it reaches that price. Also, there are times when you will continue to hold the stocks rather that having a price to cut the loss. Psychology, you are letting your feeling to control over your rationality. This is a mistake that many will experience and so did myself. To train your discipline, I encourage one should go to the casino more. It is not that I encourage you to gamble, it is a good way to train your feeling and temper. How it works is every time you enter to the casino, you will bring say $200 US into it. However, you are only allowed to lose $20. You must bring $180 out. It is similar to cutting your lost. When you are buying a stock, no matter what happens, you must leave at a certain point. If you can train yourself and be able to leave the casino with $180, you are in better shape with your discipline.

Hope this helps

Thanks

MC

Friday, July 30, 2010

Bloomberg's One Beacon Court office




Bloomberg's One Beacon Court office


Thanks
Paul

via http://www.flickr.com/photos/21108344@N00/3285477494


More information on CBID






Many news organizations around the world have been cutting back on staff, resources and coverage. But a new media outfit backed by one of Hong Kong’s most prominent businessmen is bucking that trend, The New York Times’s Bettina Wassener reported.

Cai Business Indepth, known as CBID, is aiming to become a major provider of reliable financial news and analysis, in English, about one of the world’s largest and most complex economies: China. (“Cai” means finance in Mandarin.)

CBID’s baseline product — a daily wrap-up of the main business stories in greater China — was initiated Monday on the company’s Web site, www.cbid.com.

An advertising campaign will follow this week, and a suite of other products — like industry and regional reports and economic data — is planned in the coming months.

CBID hired about 30 reporters, many of them recruited from other media outlets.

Another 30 have been added at a partner publication, The Hong Kong Economic Journal, a Chinese-language daily, to provide English-language content for CBID.

And a similar number are dedicated to CBID under the umbrella of Caijing, a highly respected business magazine based in Beijing.

These partnerships and a focus on greater China should set CBID apart from larger but more diversified international news wires, said James Ogilvy-Stuart, the venture’s chief executive. His career includes a stint as the head of Asia for the Nasdaq stock market and 17 years at Bloomberg.

“There is no shortage of information about China, but only a small subset of that ever sees the light of day in English,” Mr. Ogilvy-Stuart said in an interview on Monday. “We set ourselves the task of addressing that, of creating a much clearer picture, and to bring transparency to what’s going on in the Chinese economy.”

CBID’s revenue will come mostly through subscriptions rather than advertising, Mr. Ogilvy-Stuart said. A 12-month subscription, for example, will cost $250 a month, and a three-month subscription will be $300 a month, according to the company’s Web site. For now, the company is offering free two-week trials.

“We are unashamedly focused on the institutional corporate community — we are at the premium end of what is a niche market,” Mr. Ogilvy-Stuart said. “We have a one-way bet on China.”

CBID would not discuss its ownership structure. But the service’s founders and backers, including Richard Li, who is chairman of PCCW, the main Hong Kong telecommunications company, are convinced that they are onto a winner.

The global downturn has thrust fast-growing Asia into the limelight as an engine of world growth, prompting an influx of investment by businesses seeking to capitalize on booming economies and on the rising affluence of Asia’s billions of consumers.

“The demand for business intelligence, due diligence, advice and information is almost inexhaustible in Asia,” said Gavin Greenwood of Allan & Associates, a security and political consulting firm based in Hong Kong.

Other firms also say they have seen a big increase in global interest in Asia in the last three years.

“European and American companies and investors acutely feel the need to understand the market better and are actively looking for suppliers, customers and potential business partners in the region,” said David Legg, managing director for Europe and Asia of theGerson Lehrman Group, which puts regional and industrial experts in touch with investors.

Copal Partners, whose 1,000 employees, mostly based in India, provide research and analysis services for banks, hedge funds and private equity firms, also has seen its Asia-related work soar.

Copal’s Mandarin-speaking team has doubled to 40 in the last 12 months, and China-related work, virtually nonexistent two years ago, now makes up 10 percent of revenue, according to its chief executive, Rishi Khosla.

“We’ve seen a substantial increase in demand for country analysis and corporate enquiry work in China in the last couple of years,” Ben Wootliff, who heads the corporate enquiries team of the political and security consulting firm, Control Risks Group, in Shanghai, said in an interview on Monday. “This is partly because the financial crisis has accelerated the inflow of investments here and partly because clients have become increasingly aware of the challenges and potential risks they face in doing business here.”

These, he said, include fraud and corruption and information and intellectual-property issues, policy and regulation, and, especially for firms with major long-term strategic exposure to China, wider political concerns like trade and diplomatic issues with the United States and European Union.

In the last two years, Control Risks’ China-related revenue has grown sharply, and the company is increasing its professional staff based in China by 25 percent this year.

Via financial times

CBID?




www.cbid.com

Creating the east side of Bloomberg?

Thanks
Paul Ng